Theresa May Not Survive the Impending Brexit Implosion

By Stephen Kangal
July 11, 2018

Stephen KangalWith the resignations of the British Brexit and Foreign Secretaries, Messrs Davis and Johnson, the Brexit seismology has assumed the dimensions, challenges and divisiveness of the metaphorical Pandora’s Box prematurely opened up by a discarded former PM David Cameron who was its first Prime Ministerial victim. Theresa May is likely to become the second very soon.

The several waves and concentric circles of uncertainties spawned by this political economic issue are destabilising every aspect of British economic life with the only respite and antidote against the Brexit contagion being generated by the promising fortunes of the English soccer team at the World Cup in Russia.

The enigmatic Brexit plot has now thickened exponentially. The obvious theatre for prosecuting this new diplomatic virtual war to re-acquire Independence and its diminishing territorial integrity for Britain was the EU headquarters in Brussels. The conundrum has now spread its tentacles to Westminster, to the Labour Party, the DUP Coalition partner, Conservatives, the media, the business community and the people themselves who conducted a million people march against Brexit through the streets of London recently.

The electorate is totally confused because Theresa May has deviated from the political message telegraphed by the 17m who voted Yes in the 2017 EU referendum. Her soft Brexit landing negotiating brief is what she expects to use to placate Michael Barnier, the chief EU negotiator. The latter has recently admitted that about 80% of the issues have been agreed to.

Brexit has now morphed into an unprecedented tsunami threatening to destabilise every British interest in its path. Threats of betrayal against PM May with her soft Brexit configuration adopted at the Chequers Cabinet retreat last week-end have been made by senior Conservatives. Boris Johnson in his letter of resignation has accused PM Theresa May of attempting to continue to fabricate Britain as a colony of the EU were the proposals tabled by PM May to become the basis for the divorce settlement.

The 1922 Committee of back-benchers of the Tory Party needs 48 MP’s who will support a vote of no confidence to trigger a vote in the Conservative Party against Prime Minister Theresa May’s continued leadership. All these developments will certainly delay the withdrawal of the UK from the EU scheduled for 29 March 2019.

Political and economic uncertainty has been undermining investment confidence in the political economy of the UK and may result in a weak pound making imports more expensive and diverting key investments to the EU countries away from Britain.

Brexit is not exclusively about negotiating a favourable post-Brexit trade deal with Europe and regaining control over its territorial limits and borders. It is also the mechanism by which the UK hopes to regain its former political and economic independence, sovereignty and nationality that is fueled and propelled by recollections of the former globally celebrated British character of 19th Century Britain.

Insularity is also an operating factor that frees Britain from continental Europe to recapture its erstwhile dominant power in world trade. Britain has become the periphery of Brussels that emerged as the dominant centre reminiscent of the old colonial paradigm.

Further resignations by the two vice-chairmen of the governing Conservative Party have heightened tensions at Westminster and the Tory Party. The possibility of the 1922 Committee of Tory back-benchers initiating the process for the passage of a vote of no confidence in the leadership of May by obtaining the support initially of 48 Tory MP’s is real.

It can lead to the collapse of Theresa May’s Administration and the development of a very serious political crisis that can radiate to the remaining 27 EU member states especially the emerging populist regimes in Italy, Austria and Hungary.