Britain Bracing for A Catastrophic Brexit Ides of March 2019

By Stephen Kangal
July 24, 2018
Croydon England

Stephen KangalRed flags and red lines in anticipation of a no deal Brexit with the UK crashing out of the EU come 30 March next year are causing dark clouds of a doomsday scenario to gather over the skies of Britain and the 27 remaining EU countries in what could produce a most disruptive and an unprecedented chaos on both banks of the Channel. A mood of pessimism, political disenchantment in discredited Westminster politics and declining business confidence are increasingly generating traction about a no-deal given the EU’s negative reaction to the Chequers Plan that has been described as unworkable by EU chief negotiator, Francophonie Michel Barnier.

Britain is under attack, under the hammer and under duress to surrender by the EU.

It appears to me that Michel Barnier who represents the EU Commission is more concerned about punishing, isolating and embarrassing the UK into submission for its radical decision to leave the EU in order to deter other potential members such as Italy from doing so as well given the colonisation syndrome adopted by Brussels with German and French support. Hitherto the political exchanges have been stacked against the UK having to make all the concessions and suggestions although changing its Brexit Secretary from David Davis to Dominic Raad does not help to enhance the process.

On both sides of the Channel directives have been issued to the stakeholders of business, citizens and administration to develop preparedness and contingency plans to address the monumental problems that will arise should the Ides of March, God forgive produces the virtual shut-down.

The prospects of the Chequers Plan gaining passage in the Commons in September after the recess are remote given the lack of a Conservative majority and a deeply divided Tory Government between Remainers and Brexiteers (Eurosceptics) the latter headed by Jacob Rees-Mogg of the European Research Group. There is an outbreak of civil war in the Commons on both sides of the aisle. There is increasing uncertainty whether the Commons will approve the Withdrawal Agreement prior to 30 March 2019 given the deadlock, gridlock and stalemate there with Labour also in complete disarray with dissidents voting Tory.

Brexit has divided Britain on several fronts making it almost ungovernable in Westminster.

The problem is that there is a general perception nation-wide that the Chequers Plan does not adhere faithfully to the terms of the 2016 Referendum because it is a prescription for the UK being half-in and half out even though PM May said that Brexit means Brexit. Brexiteer hard liners who hold the balance of power in the fragile, fragmented and weakening Tory Government via the ERG are calling the shots. PM May is beholden to that Group for her political survival in Downing Street having won the passage of the Customs Bill by mere five votes last week.

The EU and Britain must conclude a withdrawal agreement by 30 March 2019. Failure to do so owing to a negotiating stalemate/dead-end will mean that there will be a complete disruptive break with no post-Brexit Agreement on EU/UK Future Relations and no 2020 transition period. It may also mean that UK will not pay the £40bn outstanding as the terms of the divorce settlement. Only the remaining 27 via the Council of Ministers can break the dead-lock by a strategic intervention at the last hour extend the withdrawal date.

In view of the uncertainty and divergence besieging the current EU- UK negotiations, the stalemate in the grid-locked House of Commons and the increasing threat posed by a no- deal Brexit the following political response options are being placed on the radar that will incubate during the summer recess of Westminster:

— Extension of the Article 50 departure deadline beyond 30 March 2019 on the approval of the 27 EU members and Britain once there are prospects of a break-through;
— Staying in the EU;
— No deal crash out by Britain with catastrophic consequences;
— Fresh General Elections in Britain to eliminate the stalemate in Parliament;
— A Government of National Unity ;
— A Second Referendum without Russian interference in Brexit;
— Acceptance by the EU of the Chequers Plan and showing more flexibility and less arrogance;
— A vote of no confidence in Prime Minister May by the 1922 Committee of Backbenchers with 48 Tory MP’s supporting;
— Negotiation of a frictionless Soft Border between Northern Ireland and the Republic of Ireland that preserves the integrity of the UK and which seems to be the most divisive and contentious issue in the negotiations;
— Emergence of a Third Pro- European Party now gaining increasing support of the electorate to break the Tory- Labour stranglehold of Westminster open the gates
— Dispatch of Cabinet members by PM May to the respective capitals of the 27 EU members to canvass support for Britain’s trade deal.
— The decision of the Electoral Commission to fine Vote Leave £61,000 for election violations during the referendum and which people feel invalidates the result to leave the EU.

3 thoughts on “Britain Bracing for A Catastrophic Brexit Ides of March 2019”

  1. As a remain voter, I am of the opinion that we need a second referendum to clear up this mess we have gotten ourselves into. The sad thing is, that neither the Conservative or the Labour parties and offering any clear vision as to what Brexit actually looks like to the man on the street, in terms of the impact to his very way of life following Brexit. If you were to interview people regarding how they voted, they would say we did not vote for this current mess. Indeed, many of the voters, particularly in the north on England voted on immigration issues rather than the principle of us as a country securing trade deal outside the EU. The common man on the street simply did not understand the ramifications for voting to leave the EU. We are now as a country literally like a ship without a rudder heading for disaster with a no deal Brexit.

  2. I agree with all of your concerns. The First Referendum was not conducted on any analysis of the fall out from leaving save the fake news perpetrated by the Leave Campaign. Accordingly a major decision to leave the EU now that the damage list has been computed by must be re-submitted back to the people so that democracy can work its magic to take the right decision. I believe that the people in a second referendum will correct the external interference, the lack of information, the vote leave over-expenditure according to the Electoral Commission’s findings and vote to remain because all hell is likely to break loose creating a Brexit Armageddon on 30th March 2019 with war time food rationing and destruction of the peace Good Friday agreement in NI. Brexit is turning out to be a nightmare because few apples will be left on the British apple-cart. It is indeed a Pandora’s Box opened by Cameron to the detriment of the British people who may not want to vote Tory again May having aggravated the problem with her premature elections and her Chequers disaster. The welfare of the British people will be in my prayers.

  3. On Saturday the digitsl, culture, media and sport (DCMS) Committee published its prelim report calling for tougher Government regulation of social media companies that it accuses of profiting from misleading material and raised concern on the Russian involvement in the Brexit referendum via Arron Banks and his huge £8.4 mn contribution to the Vote Leave campaign apparently provided by Russian sources. Facebook stands accused of ‘having serious failings in the company’s operations’ that allowed data to be manipulated to purvey disinformation and misinformation during the Brexit referendum.
    There is now clear evidence that much mischief was afoot during the Brexit referendum to merit a re-run because Britain is the throes of a crisis originating from this contaminated and manipulated vote that can now be reviewed democratically to circumvent this doomsday scenario.Russian involvement in the Brexit campaign is geared to weaken the EU just as Trump has set out to weaken NATO at the prodding of the puppet master Putin to whom he appears to be beholden. Both Russian intrusion and the verdict of the Electoral Commission would seem to call into question the validity of the results of the Brexit referendum.

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