By Stephen Kangal
January 22, 2010
Contrary to the uninformed view of Selwyn Ryan that victory for the Hon. Kamla P. Bissessar in the UNC internal elections will result in the political demise of Winston Dookeran and the COP I believe that based on all the post-elections scenarios the COP will derive political capital and find itself in a win-win situation. The COP is the common denominator in all post-elections scenarios and will emerge as the principal beneficiary post January 24 UNC elections.
In my view were either of Ramesh Maharaj or Basdeo Panday to prevail in the leadership race that will engender a mass exodus of the UNC membership into the corridors of the COP. That is because the former will not be trusted or willing to enter a sustainable and genuine alliance/accommodation with the COP. As for the latter his victory will be either regarded as stolen and/or as an indicator of the UNC being further relegated into a permanent state of Opposition. The leadership/membership of the COP will neither attempt nor be receptive to forge any electoral accommodation or unity with a discredited and widely known politically damaged negotiator.
Kamla and Jack can only lose via ballot box-vote-tampering. In this scenario they will gravitate towards the COP with their huge following. However were they to prevail in spite of the risk of electoral irregularities the scope for functional co-operation with the COP and the forging of an invincible UNC-COP electoral arrangement will attract enormous support from the huge external and balance of power floating pool. The “dual nationalities” will disappear.
But were Panday to visit as Leader of the Opposition to either or to both of the Kamla-Jack victors the marginalization treatment he meted out to Dookeran (2005) and Ramesh Maharaj (2001) and retain control and domination of the UNC their recourse can only be towards the COP.
A reconstituted Kamla-Dookeran-Jack alliance resulting from any of the above-mentioned post -January 24 scenarios can generate the electoral melt-down of 1986 having regard to the mushrooming disenchantment with the mismanagement, corruption, ineptitude and nepotism endemic in the modus operandi of the misfits directing the Manning Administration.