Hurricane Ivan Intermediate Advisory
National Hurricane Center Miami Fl
2 AM AST WED SEP 08 2004
...Extremely dangerous Ivan moving westward through the southeastern Caribbean...New hurricane warnings issued...
A hurricane warning remains in effect for Aruba...Bonaire...And Curacao.
A hurricane watch and a tropical storm warning remain in effect for the Guajira peninsula of Colombia...And for the entire northern coast of Venezuela.
A tropical storm warning remains in effect for Grenada and its dependencies.
A tropical storm watch may be required for portions of the Dominican Republic and Haiti on Wednesday.
Interests elsewhere in the Lesser Antilles and the eastern and central Caribbean sea should closely monitor the progress of Ivan.
At 2 am ast...0600z...The center of hurricane Ivan was located near latitude 12.3 north...Longitude 64.3 west or about 270 miles... 435 km...East of Bonaire.
Ivan is moving toward the west near 17 mph...28 km/hr. A gradual turn toward the west-northwest is expected during the next 24 hours. This motion should bring the center of Ivan north of Aruba...Bonaire...And Curacao on Wednesday. However...Any deviation to the left of the forecast track could bring the center close to those islands.
Maximum sustained winds are near 135 mph...215 km/hr...With higher gusts. This makes Ivan an extremely dangerous category 4 hurricane on the saffir-simpson hurricane scale. Strengthening is forecast during the next 24 hours. An air force reserve hurricane hunter aircraft is currently assessing the strength of Ivan.
Hurricane force winds extend outward up to 70 miles...110 km... From the center...And tropical storm force winds extend outward up to 160 miles...260 km.
The estimated minimum central pressure is 950 mb...28.05 inches.
Storm surge flooding of 3 to 5 feet above normal tide levels... Along with large and dangerous battering waves...Can be expected near the center of Ivan in the hurricane warning area.
Rainfall amounts of 5 to 7 inches...Possibly causing flash floods and mud slides...Can be expected along the path of Ivan..
Repeating the 2 am ast position...12.3 n... 64.3 w. Movement toward...West near 17 mph. Maximum sustained winds...135 mph. Minimum central pressure... 950 mb.
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