Express, Keith Smith

Preoccupied with their own concerns, Trinidadians and Tobagonians may be casting only a disinterested eye on neighbouring Venezuela. But as that country remains threatened by coup, or even civil war, that may not be a luxury we can afford for much longer.

It is true that Venezuela has had its combustible trials and tribulations before with hardly any effect on this country save, of course, for the influx of Venezuelans who have sought sanctuary within our tranquil shores. But times have changed and it is doubtful that in the event of a complete breakdown in the fifth- largest oil-producing country in the world, we will remain unscathed if only it is through a further opening up of the drug and arms trade that has linked criminal gangs across the narrow stretch of water that separates us at its closest point.

We have heard no statements on Venezuela's ongoing crisis, either from the Prime Minister, the Minister of External Affairs or, indeed, any other government spokesman. So all indications are that the Government is going to stick with its traditional posture of turning a blind eye, if not a deaf ear, to the ominous sights and sounds emanating from our big neighbour.

It may well be that the Government is content to offer its counsel though the international and regional organisations to which it belongs. And, in any case, it is doubtful that either of the contending parties, government or opposition, would be prepared to pay any heed to any restraining words, far less any attempt at mediation on our part. Assuming, of course, that we had either the space, stature or competence to do so.

And, yet, Venezuela seems heading towards tragedy. Pitted against each other are the majority poor-an incredible 80 per cent of the country's population —and the traditional ruling classes with the military standing between them, but with no guarantee that it will not, sooner or later, become embroiled in a bloody power struggle, at the end of which the poor, as usual, will turn out to be the biggest losers.

Given the alleged role played in the last coup by members of the Bush administration, the behaviour of the United States is not above suspicion. Although on the basis of its regular high-sounding pronouncements, theoretically, that country should be supportive of the democratically-elected president, Hugo Chavez, whatever the political missteps he may have made in what seems to be a genuine attempt to change the corruption-ridden “democracy” that has seen a privileged minority enriched at the expense of an oppressed majority.

Venezuela's problems are real, with all indications pointing to unrelieved upheaval. What the immediate future hold is anybody's guess. But whoever triumphs in the short term, the long-term analysis must be that Venezuelans will not know even relative peace unless the political class finds a way to bridge the yawning gulf between rich and poor in this increasingly inequitable nation.